U.S., Allies, Iran, Arms Race, Security
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With the presumed end of cold war, it was expected that the extreme polarity which existed between Soviet and American blocks, would be over. At times, U.S. and Russia, the major remnant of Soviet Union, seemed to be coming closer, but, the basic hate and distrust never ended. Recently the differences have become much more obvious then they have been in last couple of decades. Both countries still have major conflicting interests, and those show up in almost every global issue. North Korea, Iran and Syria are main examples. They also have major conflicts regarding oil supply, pricing and regional influence like in Central Asia, for example. Historically, Soviets had bad relations with China, but, Russians seem to not have too many issues with it, now.
Economic needs of U.S. and China have tied them in close economic and financial ties. But, ideological, strategic, geographical and regional difference have remained obvious, if not worsened. While openly opposing U.S, policies and intentions about North Korea, Iran and Syria, China has taken totally different path regarding its animosity towards U.S. China keeps buying enormous amounts of U.S. government backed securities. This has encouraged government spending in U.S., to a great extent, in spite of bad economy, and mounting national debt and federal budget deficits. Policy makers in U.S. are deceived to believe that this supply of unlimited debt money will keep coming forever. Nothing could be farther from truth, then this ridiculous assumption. As a matter of fact, Chinese government has already made a decision to not buy large amounts of U.S. government backed security. Although, this decision is yet to be fully implemented.
The result is that U.S. debt and deficits continue to rise, exerting an immense pressure on overall economy, financial situation, business environment and employment. By all means, U.S. economy seems to be at the verge collapse. In the meantime, China keeps strengthening its influence in Africa and other parts of the world through aid and engineering assistance. Both China and Russia are not happy with mounting U.S. influence and military presence in their neighborhoods. Both have openly opposed a direct U.S. attack on Iran, North Korea or Syria.
No doubt that Iranian regime is extremist. They have a terrible human rights record and have expressed intentions to wipe out Israel from the face of Earth. They are anti U.S. in their roots. At the same time, Iran is a major military force, and a very large portion of it is what we provided to them before revolution. Iran produces a large variety of advanced weapons, domestically, and continued to get weapons from European countries, until recently. Iran satisfies a very significant portion of world’s, especially rapidly growing China’s, thirst for oil.
Iran has proved, with its behavior, in past that it’s animosity towards U.S. is not primarily Muslims vs. non-Muslims. It has very good relations with Russia and China, both countries being Socialist and Communist. The roots of Iran’s problems with us lie in our endeavor to police the world. It started when we destroyed a very early Democracy, in a Muslim country, through a coup and replaced it with a puppet, tyrannical king. Both, him and his son, were cruel and outlandishly lavish. They were the worst rulers and did not care about Iranian money and people at all. They wasted Iran’s extra ordinary oil wealth on personal and family welfare, very much heartlessly.
When there was massive public protest and revolt against that tyranny, we sided with tyranny. Most Iranians have not forgotten that, yet. In spite of massive dissatisfaction with harsh, religious regime, people still do not accept us as an alternative. On the other hand, Iranians have been very successful in their diplomatic attempts to keep Russia and China on their side, when it comes to the conflict with U.S. and its western allies. Iran has also been quite successful in establishing, maintaining and increasing its influence in Central Asia and Middle East.
Iran has successfully played with the anti-American sentiment in Middle East. This sentiment is the result of our decades of intervention in their affairs. Iran’s support to extremist groups like Hezbollah and countries like Syria, has earned it lots of favors in Middle East. Iran has very good relations with couple of former Soviet Union states, in Central Asia, too. Its support to Syria, puts it in line with Russia, another strategic advantage in its foreign relations. Iran has, also, been very successful in exploiting the anti-Israel sentiments in Muslim and Middle Eastern countries.
The size of Iranian military is considerably large. They also have very large and trained civil militia. Credible intelligence sources, also, confirm a very large number of Iranian sleepers in U.S. and other western countries. It location has great strategic importance, too. It can easily block Strait of Hormuz which can completely cripple the oil supply to West. Any armed conflict with Iran, whether through Israel or a direct U.S. attack will be so huge that Iraq and Afghanistan will look like nothing, comparatively. Its cost will be ridiculously high, and we, with this crippling economy, and rising debt and deficits, cannot afford it, at all.
I case of a war, Iran, Hezbollah and Syria can cause unimaginable damage to Israel. Israel may be forced to use nuclear weapons, which will only make it worse. Iran’s domestically manufactured missiles have full capability to hit Israel. Plus, Hezbollah and Syria, who are in Israel’s neighbor, can deliver lots of firepower, too. It will be a serious mistake from strategic point of view, too. Any war with Israel and / or America will end the conflict in Syria, and people will join against common enemy. Even though Israel has nuclear weapons, the very small size of Israel puts it at a serious strategic disadvantage against the Iranian firepower.
At the same time, it is becoming very evident that China and Russia with huge pile of cash and trillions owned in U.S. backed securities seem determined to fully support Iran in its war against ever increasing U.S. influence. If Iranians get successful in getting Chinese and / or Russian economic might, cash and military power to back them, it will be the end of the world. Many experts are calling it third world war. I call it Armageddon. We must realize, although, the world is a very dangerous place, we cannot police everyone. We need to learn to respect the sovereignty of other countries.